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Ed Said - Speculate to accumulate

 

 

dadThis was an edict my father was heard to quote on numerous occasions. He understood the principle very well. However there is a fine line between speculation and gambling and my father was never much of a gambler, preferring to retain ownership of his hard-earned for as long as possible or for a specific purpose.

The edict, however, still rings true – the greater the risk, the greater the perceived rewards. The best modern version of this is Lotto. Large numbers are regular players but when the jackpot gets up over the $20 million mark they tend to spend more, plus non-regular players are also encouraged to invest simply because ‘you never know.’ The upside is the prospect of all or part of $20 million-plus, but the part rarely considered is that players have around one chance in 40 million of winning the major prize.

But I digress. Since Mark Rowbotham released his blueprint for the Estuary Estates development in 2008 and erected a sign on the large tract of land on the Molesworth Drive Causeway, there has been, off and on, considerable speculation as to when and what will eventually be developed there. Beset by the world financial crisis the signs stood still as did most development within the area and even throughout the country. Speculation included a number of possibilities from a number of potential buyers and, along with other developments, Chinese whispers even suggested a Chinese consortium was a serious contender.

All conjecture is now passed and, given favourable winds of change, a bona fide Kiwi consortium has secured the property and are speculating big-time in announcing plans to establish a centre comprising a shopping centre, accommodation, school, medical centre and more. It’s a big call on behalf of Viranda Holdings on one hand, given the size of Mangawhai but on the other, considering recent growth, the timing for such a development is well considered. It happens invariably that infrastructure has to catch up with population growth but development of this kind can never come too late.

Mangawhai, in its present state simply cannot serve all the needs of a population growing so rapidly. It also has little room in which to develop. The shopping centres of both the Heads and the Village barely stretch 100 metres each with little room to expand. More people demand more jobs yet also create more jobs, so a development like Mangawhai Central can only be good on a number of fronts. Alternatively it may also create opposition for some existing businesses. But change in some form or other is endemic and embracing change signifies a greater awareness and willingness to serve the community.

There are still those who would like Mangawhai to stay ‘just like it was’ but do they mean 1970 or do they mean 2000, and if you’re selling real estate, for example, do you tell people not to come here? Incredible changes have taken place within those 30 years just as they are now and will continue.

Such developments don’t happen overnight but I believe Mangawhai needs three things: It needs Viranda Holdings, it needs Mangawhai Central and it needs the support of the community to maintain its place as the jewel in the Kaipara crown. Just my humble opinion. Feel free to disagree.

Rob


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