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Northland economic outlook pessimistic but improving says survey

 

Northland households are far less optimistic about the economic outlook for their region than the average New Zealand household, according to the latest Westpac McDermott Miller Regional Economic Confidence survey.

However, confidence in the local economy has improved sharply from six months ago.

A net 4 percent of households expect mostly bad economic times in the region over the year ahead, an improvement from a net 17 percent who were downbeat in March.

This compares to a national average of a net 10 percent of households with a positive outlook for their respective regions.

“Northland has a fair amount of dairying and forestry, which are both industries facing significant challenges at the moment. This will explain some of the pessimism,” said Westpac Industry Economist David Norman.

“However, factors that may be helping move the regional outlook toward positive territory include an increase in guest nights of 5.5 percent over the previous year, and strong growth in house prices, which tends to boost people’s sense of economic well-being.”

Separately, the regional breakdown of the Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence Index showed Northland consumer confidence is below the national average, but falling much more slowly.

The regional Index fell 2.8 points to 104.0 in September, but nationally fell 7.0 points to 106.0 in September.

“Northland has a pessimistic view of where the national economy will be in 12 months, and residents believe their own financial position will be weaker in 12 months too,” said Mr Norman.

“Nevertheless, a net 15 percent of residents believe now is a good time for a major household purchase, which may provide some comfort to retailers.”

The survey was conducted over the period 1-11 September 2015.

 
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